Hiddush Survey:
Political parties’ commitment to religious freedom will help at polls
The formula for success in Israel’s March ’20 elections: Declare your party’s commitment to the fight for religious freedom & equality. 54% of the Israeli Jewish public responded that such a commitment by the parties running for election would increase the likelihood of their voting for those parties.
19/02/2020 13:23
Tags: Hiddush polls · 2020 elections · Israel elections · religious freedom · Blue and White · Yisrael Beiteinu · Likud
Given that public opinion polls continue to indicate that the political landscape following the elections in two weeks is likely to remain in a stalemate, Hiddush - For Religious Freedom and Equality conducted a survey to determine whether issues of religion & state could potentially change the picture of the ongoing political battle.
The survey conducted by the Smith Polling Institute for Hiddush, among a representative sample of Israel’s adult Jewish population, provides unequivocal findings on the public's desire to hear strong declarations of commitment to promoting religious freedom and equality in Israel from the parties running in the March elections, as well as the formation of a civil unity government following the elections.
The first question posed was:
“If the party you are considering voting for emphasizes its commitment to fight for religious freedom and equality, such as public transportation on Saturdays, civil marriage and divorce, enlistment in the IDF or in civilian service for yeshiva students, etc., would this increase or decrease the likelihood that you vote for it? (greatly increase; increase; decrease; greatly decrease; won't affect my vote)”
Among those who responded [84%], 54% said that this would increase the likelihood of their voting for such a party, compared to only 14% who responded that this would make it less likely. Among the secular Israeli public - 72% said it would increase the likelihood, compared to only 1% who said that this would make it less likely. Among the traditional-not-religious public, the ratio is 55%:10%.
Even among those planning to vote for Likud, there is a strong core of voters who are frustrated by their party's position on matters of religion & state - 37% responded that a commitment to promote religious freedom and equality would strengthen their intention to vote for the Likud. The same is true of the public that self-identifies as politically right-wing [38%]. The ratio is even more pronounced among the public that self-identifies as right-of-center [55%:12%]. What is particularly relevant is the fact that among those who have not yet decided whom to vote for, the ratio is 48%:18%.
These findings are also consistent with the answers to another question that Hiddush asked in the survey:
“What kind of government coalition would you like to see arise after the Knesset elections? (two potential responses were given)”
63% of those who responded want the first alternative: A civil unity government that will promote religious freedom and equality, and only 37% want the second alternative: A government, which depends on the ultra-Orthodox and Zionist Orthodox parties
Again, the responses were consistent with the position of Israel’s adult Jewish public. 63% of those who responded want the first alternative: A civil unity government that will promote religious freedom and equality, and only 37% want the second alternative: A government, which depends on the ultra-Orthodox and Zionist Orthodox parties and maintains the ‘status quo’ on matters of religion & state. Among the secular public, the ratio is 92%:8%, and among the traditional-not-religious public: 71%:29%. Among those who self-identify as politically right of center, centrist, and left of center, a huge majority supports this [75%-98%]. Likewise, among Likud voters about half [49%] prefer a broad, civil unity government. As expected, among Blue & White voters support for this is 97%; Labor-Gesher-Meretz - 100%; and Yisrael Beiteinu - 91%. Of great importance is the fact that among those voters who have not yet decided whom to vote for, 77% want a civil unity government.
Analysis of the findings shows that parties' putting emphasis on their commitment to advance a political agenda of religious freedom and equality of civic burden will bear great fruit in the coming elections, netting them additional votes in March, especially for parties whose vast majorities of voters strongly support this position. For example: Blue & White. According to recent Hiddush polls and the Israeli Voice Index of the Israel Democracy Institute published this month, 92-95% of Blue & White party voters self-identify as secular or ‘traditional-non-religious’. Further, about 70% of undecided voters belong to these two groups, which together constitute about 65% of Israel’s adult Jewish public. The reality is that a few percent of the vote in one direction or another may dramatically affect the election results. Many polls show that security issues; the economy; and the charges against the Prime Minister have played out their potential in shifting the balance between the two major political camps, and therefore issues of religion & state may very well play a more significant role than the heads of Blue & White and Labor-Gesher-Meretz realize.
The findings of the survey indicate the Israeli public desires a broad civil unity coalition, which will revolutionize the reality of the long-standing government-empowered religious coercion. Voters will reward the parties who heed their expectations. We can only wonder why and until when the relevant civil parties will continue to close their eyes to the expectations of their constituents regarding the main issue, which differentiates the two main contenders running in Israel’s elections. Issues of religion & state have the potential to profoundly affect the outcome of the coming March elections, as well as the composition of the next Israeli government.
The telephone survey was conducted on February 12-13, among 600 people - a representative sample of Israel’s adult Jewish population. Sampling error: ±4%